I came up with this idea in August, worked on it for a while, and then started doing every game (most days) on September 5. So there’s the preface…
I realized my projection for -1.5 runs bets was off, because my system doesn’t take enough so i stopped doing them and didn’t count them in my analysis. (on those bets, 11-15, bet 53.5 units to lose 1.03). You can use that against me if you want, but this was soley a test of my projection system.
I’ll work on improving the model over the off-season to be able to incorporate 3 year averages and the pitching metric I use will be a refined version of the one I currently use.
Units bet: 179
Units won: 51.9
Return on Investment: 29%
Average estimated Return on Investment: 19%
The way I determined bet size was (est ROI in %)/10