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Monthly Archives: September 2008

Red Sox vs Angels


GAME 1
Jon Lester at John Lackey

Estimated Runs Scored
Red Sox // 5.0
Angels // 3.4
Winning Chance
Red Sox // 67.61%
Angels // 32.39%
Recommended Money Line
Red Sox // -209
Angels // 209
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Dodgers vs Cubs


GAME 1
Derek Lowe at Ryan Dempster

Estimated Runs Scored
Dodgers // 3.3
Cubs // 4.0
Winning Chance
Dodgers // 42.42%
Cubs // 57.58%
Recommended Money Line
Dodgers // 136
Cubs // -136
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Brewers vs Phillies


GAME 1
Yovani Gallardo at Cole Hamels

Estimated Runs Scored
Brewers // 3.9
Phillies // 4.6
Winning Chance
Brewers // 41.91%
Phillies // 58.09%
Recommended Money Line
Brewers // 139
Phillies // -139
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I came up with this idea in August, worked on it for a while, and then started doing every game (most days) on September 5. So there’s the preface…

I realized my projection for -1.5 runs bets was off, because my system doesn’t take enough so i stopped doing them and didn’t count them in my analysis. (on those bets, 11-15, bet 53.5 units to lose 1.03). You can use that against me if you want, but this was soley a test of my projection system.

I’ll work on improving the model over the off-season to be able to incorporate 3 year averages and the pitching metric I use will be a refined version of the one I currently use.

Record:
59-28

Units bet: 179
Units won: 51.9
Return on Investment: 29%
Average estimated Return on Investment: 19%
The way I determined bet size was (est ROI in %)/10

Cubs (+102): 31.30% ROI
Marlins (+155): 30.84% ROI
Rangers (+160): 29.90% ROI
Nationals (+222): 21.81% ROI
Braves (even): 17.64% ROI
Rays (+102): 13.73% ROI
Royals (+210): 10.70% ROI
Cards (-120): 6.35% ROI

cho difficult:
Athletics (+105): 11.91%

Rays at Tigers
Andy Sonnanstine vs Justin Verlander

Estimated Runs Scored
Rays // 5.0
Tigers // 4.4
Winning Chance %
Rays // 56.30%
Tigers // 43.70%
Win % (+1 run)
Rays // 64.48%
Tigers // 53.35%
Money Line You Should Take
Rays // -129
Tigers // 129
Money Line You Should Take (team +1)
Rays // -182
Tigers // -114
Money Line You Should Take (team -1)
Rays // 118
Tigers // 210
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Cubs (-110): 42.57% ROI
Rockies (+102): 31.12% ROI
Padres (+115): 15.46% ROI
Red Sox (-160): 11.05% ROI

scary lines
Cubs -1 (+140) 53.41% ROI

Rays at Tigers
Scott Kazmir vs Armando Galarraga

Estimated Runs Scored
Rays // 5.5
Tigers // 4.8
Winning Chance %
Rays // 56.97%
Tigers // 43.03%
Win % (+1 run)
Rays // 64.67%
Tigers // 52.24%
Money Line You Should Take
Rays // -132
Tigers // 132
Money Line You Should Take (team +1)
Rays // -183
Tigers // -109
Money Line You Should Take (team -1)
Rays // 112
Tigers // 209
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Cubs (+120): 31.16% ROI
Indians (+145): 27.91% ROI
Marlins (-119): 25.37% ROI
Padres (+230): 21.70% ROI
White Sox (+115): 20.85% ROI
Cardinals (-110): 15.54% ROI
Tigers (-115): 12.73% ROI
Angels (+120): 9.38% ROI
Athletics (+103): 7.37% ROI

Athletics at Rangers
Dana Eveland vs Matt Harrison

Estimated Runs Scored
Athletics // 5.5
Rangers // 5.2
Winning Chance %
Athletics // 52.89%
Rangers // 47.11%
Win % (+1 run)
Athletics // 60.93%
Rangers // 55.75%
Money Line You Should Take
Athletics // -112
Rangers // 112
Money Line You Should Take (team +1)
Athletics // -156
Rangers // -126
Money Line You Should Take (team -1)
Athletics // 132
Rangers // 171
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